GLOBAL WARMING: THE
RHYTHMIC BASE OF PROGNOSIS
Pomortsev O.A.,
Kashkarov E.P.,
From 90 millions of Internet-pages
of Global Warming only 0.5% linked with prognosis. Numbers of prognosis
investigations in
The current warming was correctly predicted
only by A.V.Shnitnikov. He build prognosis on long
periodical rhythm in 1850 years, “responsible” for change of precipitation of
the Earth. The other experts have been predicted a climate cooling. They based
on short periodical rhythms and pay no attention to background influence of
long periodical rhythms of Shnitnikov (1,850) and Milankovich (40,700).
Little Ice Age in XII-XIX centuries
and current warming had showed a determine role in creation of climate
background the long periodical rhythms. They create trends for three-four,
eleven, and hundred-year rhythms. Thanks to warm-dry (WD) climate interval of
1,850-year rhythm, and warm-wet (WW) interval of 40,700-year rhythm,
temperature curve in the middle of XIX century came from the cold area to the
warm (Fig. 1). From here was began the current warming.
Fig.
1. Inner structure of 40,700 and 1,850 year rhythms (by E.V.Maksimov, 1986),
remodeled by authors. Fig. 2. Trend of average annual
temperatures in XIX-XXI centuries (above-Yakutsk,
and below – global)
XX century represented transition
period between Little Ice Age and current warming (Fig. 2). By the rhythm of Shitnikov the Global Warming will continue in future for
700 years, by the rhythm of Milankovich – for 7,000
years (Fig. 1). What is especially important for prognosis investigations –
instrumental observations of climate in Little Ice Age and in current Global Warming. They give reliable data for development of
prognosis and for reconstruction of climates in the past. It is necessary to
underline, that the current warming is not an anomaly – it is return of the
Earth in conditions typical for most part of its history.