Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics SB RAS

International Conference on Mathematical Methods in Geophysics «MMG-2008»

Akademgorodok, Novosibirsk, Russia, October 13-15, 2008

Abstracts

Mathematical and Statistical Simulation in Problems of the Physics of Atmosphere, Ocean, and Environmental Protection

Numerical stochastic modelling of joint hydrometeorological time series

Kosyak S.S, Ogorodnikov V.A.

Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics SB RAS (Novosibirsk)

In this work a stochastic model and algorithms of construction of realizations of joint time series of daily average temperature of air, daily sums of precipitation, components of daily average wind velocity and cloud amount on the basis of the real data are considered. For approximation of one-dimensional distributions for temperature of air and the wind velocity the in the form of mixes of two normal distributions are used. For modeling time series of precipitation s and cloud amount special threshold transformations of Gaussian time series are used. The model is used for an estimation of probabilities of adverse combinations of various hydrometeorological elements in applied tasks statistical meteorology.

Note. Abstracts are published in author's edition

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