Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics

Abstracts

Mathematical modeling of environmental protection problems

The injudicious economic activities in basin of the Aral sea in second half of past century have resulted in sharp dip of his level and deterioration of ecological conditions in Cis-Aral region. On the basis of perennial aerospace and terrestrial researches of processes landscape genesis in Cis-Aral region we traced change of an ecological situation in territory of different geosystems during last quarter ХХ of century. The tension of an ecological situation was categorized on a five-mark scale: satisfactory, moderately-satisfactory, moderate, tight, critical. By results of confrontation of maps of a sharpness of an ecological situation made as of 1975 and 2000 years and dimensions on landscape maps we count the normative forecast of change of ecological conditions in Cis-Aral region by 2025. The prediction was made on the basis of usage of properties of Markov chains with construction of a matrix of the measured areas of transitions between geosystems with a miscellaneous degree of a sharpness of an ecological situation and matrix of probabilities of such transitions. The made calculations demonstrate, that in the maiden quarter XXI of century of the area of geosystems with a critical ecological situation in investigated territory in probability will be increased in 1,1 times, while for last quarter of past century she has increased in 1,5 times. The area of geosystems with the tight ecological situation practically will not change (with 1975 on 2000 years its five-multiple increase) was watched. Thus, on made calculations in the maiden quarter of current century the stabilization of the Aral sea crisis at a qualitatively new level of a state of the environment is forecasted.

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