Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics

Abstracts

Plenary reports

In the report, a climate system model constructed in the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, on the basis of coupling models of general circulation of the atmosphere and ocean is presented. This model does not use the correction of turbulent heat fluxes on the sea surface. The method to calculate the response operator of climatic models and real climatic system to small external perturbations of forcing is described. The method is based on the use of dissipation-fluctuation relations for systems with large number of positive Lyapunov's exponents.

To illustrate the effectiveness of suggested method, some results of constructing an approximate response operator for the atmospheric general circulation model are discussed. Numerical experiments to reproduce the present-day climate have been carried out. Climatic characteristics simulated by the coupled model are compared with characteristics obtained from the community of models participating in the project SMIP. The coupled atmosphere and ocean model response to increase of the atmospheric CO$_2$ concentration is analysed. It is found that the maximal warming about 2-3.5~$^{circ}$К takes place in the centre of Euroasia. During the cold season this warming is expressed stronger (3-5~$^{circ}$К) than during the warm season (1-1.5~$^{circ}$К). Approximately one third of the cold season warming in Euroasia (1-2~$^{circ}$К)is explained by change of the atmospheric dynamics? namely, by the increase of the arctic oscillation index.

Mail to Webmaster

|Home Page| |English Part|

Go to Home