Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics

Abstracts

Mathematical modeling of processes in atmosphere and hydrosphere

The problem of regional consequences of global climate change is related to a class of problems, the solution of which stipulates the choice of strategy for developing society under extreme conditions. To investigate regional aspects of climate change, of two kinds tasks should be solved. On the one hand, the problem of parameterisation of subgrid-scale processes in climate models requires the knowledge of regional peculiarities of interactions between the atmosphere and the orographically and thermally non-homogeneous underlying surface. On the other hand, it is necessary for regions in interest to assess the global climate change impact on regional environment (the state of the underlying surface, natural ecosystems, water resources etc.) and to estimate potentialities to minimise damage due to its non-favourable for society consequences. The present-day climate models are not able to reproduce geophysical fields on regional scales with acceptable accuracy, in particular, in areas with complicated topography. In this connection, to reconstruct the small-scale structure of geophysical fields using its large-scale values or other fields ("downscaling" procedure), statistical methods are now actively used.

In the report, some results of study of the present-day climate and climate change using the hydrodynamic model developed in the Institute for Numerical Mathematics (INM) are presented. A special attention is paid to dangerous manifestation of regional peculiarities of the climate system such as, for example, the permafrost degradation. The downscaling procedure developed in the INM is described, the method of assessing the quality of information for the input vector of the inverse problem is presented and results of numerical experiments on the restoration of monthly-mean fields of the temperature, 500 hPa height and precipitation are demonstrated. The results of restoration are accompanied by a priori estimate of the inverse problem solution and by the reliability parameter.

In conclusion, some possible approaches to construct regional integrated models for assessing the vulnerability of environment due to the global climate change impact are discussed. The work is carried out under financinal support of RFBR (grants: 01-05-64150, 01-05-64571).

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