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Математическое моделирование процессов в атмосфере и гидросфере
Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model with a mixed layer ocean is used to simulate the 1951-2000 climate using historical temporal variations of well-mixed greenhouse gases, stratospheric aerosols, solar irradiance, ozone, stratospheric water vapor, and tropospheric aerosols. This simulation was extended for another 50 years to 2050 under two scenarios. A business-as-usual (BAU) case is scenario of IPCC (1992, 1996), that has a 1% per year CO$_2$ growth rate and yields a forcing of almost 3 W/m$^2$ in 2000-2050. The alternative scenario is focused on reducing non- CO$_2$ greenhouse gases and yields a forcing of 1.1 W/m$^2$ in 2000-2050. The forced climate variability for the 1951-2000 temperature in the model is reasonably consistent with the observed global mean temperature. The change of surface air temperature based on linear trend for the 1951-98 period is about 0.45~$^{circ}$C, which compares well with the 0.4~$^{circ}$C/(1951-98) temperature trend in the observational data.
Climate warming accelerates from 2000 with increase of global mean temperatures by 0.6~$^{circ}$C to the year 2050 under the alternative scenario and 1.4~$^{circ}$C under the BAU scenario. The surface warming is largest at winter high latitudes as the result of strong positive feedback. The excessive heating in both scenarios results in so-called “semi-direct” effect on clouds. There is a reduction of total cloud cover for the most of the globe, while the regions of strong cloud increase are reproduced for both scenarios.
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Дата последней модификации: 06-Jul-2012 (11:52:46)