Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics

Тезисы докладов

Математическое моделирование процессов в атмосфере и гидросфере

Changes of extreme events due to greenhouse effects (2×CO2) over East Asia, with focus on China region as simulated by a regional climate model (RegCM2) have been investigated. The model was nested to a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model (CSIRO R21L9 AOGCM). Two multi-year simulations, the control run with 1×CO2 and the sensitive run with 2×CO2, were conducted respectively. Analysis of control run of the RegCM indicated that it improved both simulations of temperature and precipitation in China, especially the later one, as compared to the CSIRO model. The spatial correlation coefficient between simulated and observed annual temperature increased from 0.83 in the CSIRO to 0.92 in the RegCM and for annual precipitation from 0.48 to 0.65. Analysis of the sensitive run showed that due to 2×CO2, an remarkably increase of annual air surface temperature with the area mean value of 2.5C and an increase of precipitation by 11% were simulated.

The RegCM also reproduces well the extreme events. Statistically significant changes of the events were analyzed. It showed that both daily maximum and daily minimum temperature increase in 2×CO2 conditions while the diurnal temperature range decrease. The largest changes of annual average Tmax and Tmin occur over southeast China and southeast and northeast China, respectively. Significant regional increases in summer Tmax and winter Tmin lead to corresponding substantial increases in hot spell days and decrease in cold spell days.

Number of rainy days increases significantly only over regions of northeast and northwest China, where an increase in average precipitation was also simulated. Over central and southeastern China, where precipitation is greater, the simulated changes in number of rainy days are not significant, but significantly increase of heavy rain events were found in some of the areas.

Tropical storms tend to increase and the dominant path of tropical storms landing over China shifts from westward across the tropical western Pacific to northward across the south China Sea.

Ваши комментарии Обратная связь

[Головная страница] [Конференции]

© 1996-2000, Институт вычислительных технологий СО РАН, Новосибирск
© 1996-2000, Сибирское отделение Российской академии наук, Новосибирск
    Дата последней модификации: 06-Jul-2012 (11:52:46)