Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics

Международная Конференция по Математическим Методам в Геофизике «ММГ-2003»

Россия, Новосибирск, Академгородок 8-12 октября 2003 г.

Тезисы докладов

Математические проблемы в геофизических исследованиях твердой Земли

REAL-TIME TSUNAMI FORECASTING: CHALLENGES AND SOLUTIONS

Gonzalez F.I.(1), Титов В.В. (1), Авдеев А.В. (2), Бежаев А.Ю.(2), Лаврентьев-мл М.М. (3), Марчук Ан.Г.(2)

(1)NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory Seattle WA USA
(2)Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics
SB RAS Novosibirsk Russia
(3)Sobolev Institute of Mathematics SB RAS Novosibirsk Russia

The U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) seeks to develop and implement tsunami forecast guidance tools for Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs) by integrating two technologies: tsunami numerical modeling and real-time measurement systems.

In recent years, tsunami modeling has grown into a mature technology. Model simulations are used for production of tsunami evacuation maps. Tsunami models demonstrate consistent results simulating historical events. When used with a well-constrained data, the models are capable to evaluate tsunami inundation heights for near- and far-field events.

The U.S. Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) systems – currently deployed at six locations in the Pacific – are achieving a data return rate of 98% and can measure tsunami waves with amplitudes less than 1cm.

However, significant challenges still exist that have prevented combining these technologies into a robust system for real-time tsunami warning. Operational requirements of TWCs demand speedy and accurate real-time simulations, robust data assimilation scheme for feeding real-time data into tsunami model, and user interface that provides easy-to-interpret warning guidance. These constrains require solutions that are quite different from the traditional tsunami research practices.

We will discuss the new tsunami forecast tools under development under the cooperation of NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory with the scientists from Novosibirsk Scientific Center. The system uses results of well-validated numerical modeling in conjunction with the DART data to address the challenges of the real-time tsunami forecasting. The data assimilation approach tuned for the real-time operations will be discussed and illustrated on historical data.

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